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Projecting the future impact of emerging SARS-CoV-2 variants under uncertainty: modeling the initial Omicron outbreak
Projecting the future impact of emerging SARS-CoV-2 variants under uncertainty: modeling the initial Omicron outbreak
Available online 2 March 2024, 100759Author links open overlay panel, , , Highlights•The COVID-19 Scenario Hub modeling sc...
Age-time-specific transmission of hand-foot-and-mouth disease enterovirus serotypes in Vietnam: A catalytic model with maternal immunity
Age-time-specific transmission of hand-foot-and-mouth disease enterovirus serotypes in Vietnam: A catalytic model with maternal immunity
Available online 27 February 2024, 100754Author links open overlay panel, , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , Highlights•W...
Chimeric Forecasting: An experiment to leverage human judgment to improve forecasts of infectious disease using simulated surveillance data
Chimeric Forecasting: An experiment to leverage human judgment to improve forecasts of infectious disease using simulated surveillance data
Available online 28 February 2024, 100756Author links open overlay panel, , , , AbstractForecasts of infectious agents pro...
COVSIM: A stochastic agent-based COVID-19 SIMulation model for North Carolina
COVSIM: A stochastic agent-based COVID-19 SIMulation model for North Carolina
KeywordsCOVID-19 scenario modeling hubStochastic agent-based simulationHealth equityLocal public health decision makingInf...
Ensemble2: Scenarios ensembling for communication and performance analysis
Ensemble2: Scenarios ensembling for communication and performance analysis
Volume 46, March 2024, 100748Author links open overlay panel, , , , , , , , , , Highlights•Developed a new scenario ensemb...
Acquisition and Clearance Dynamics of Campylobacter spp. in Children in Low- and Middle-Income Countries
Acquisition and Clearance Dynamics of Campylobacter spp. in Children in Low- and Middle-Income Countries
The prevalence of Campylobacter infection is generally high among children in low- and middle-income countries (LMIC), but...
Ensemble2: Scenarios ensembling for communication and performance analysis
Ensemble2: Scenarios ensembling for communication and performance analysis
As ground truth data, we use the weekly incident deaths and reported cases from the JHU CSSE group (Dong et al., 2020, 202...
Quantifying the impact of interventions against Plasmodium vivax: A model for country-specific use
Quantifying the impact of interventions against Plasmodium vivax: A model for country-specific use
In order to evaluate the impact of various intervention strategies on Plasmodium vivax dynamics in low endemicity settings...
Differences between the true reproduction number and the apparent reproduction number of an epidemic time series
Differences between the true reproduction number and the apparent reproduction number of an epidemic time series
The time-varying reproduction number R(t) measures the number of new infections per infectious individual and is closely c...
Inferring transmission routes for foot-and-mouth disease virus within a cattle herd using approximate Bayesian computation
Inferring transmission routes for foot-and-mouth disease virus within a cattle herd using approximate Bayesian computation
To control an outbreak of an infectious disease it is essential to understand the different routes of transmission and how...
The impact of inaccurate assumptions about antibody test accuracy on the parametrisation and results of infectious disease models of epidemics
The impact of inaccurate assumptions about antibody test accuracy on the parametrisation and results of infectious disease models of epidemics
Keywordsinfectious disease modellingDiagnostic Test AccuracyData availabilityAll input data and code used, as well as resu...
Epidemiological impact of a large number of false negative SARS-CoV-2 test results in South West England during September and October 2021
Epidemiological impact of a large number of false negative SARS-CoV-2 test results in South West England during September and October 2021
During September and October 2021, a substantial number of Polymerase Chain Reaction (PCR) tests in England processed at a...
The US COVID-19 and Influenza Scenario Modeling Hubs: delivering long-term projections to guide policy
The US COVID-19 and Influenza Scenario Modeling Hubs: delivering long-term projections to guide policy
Available online 29 December 2023, 100738Author links open overlay panel, , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , Highlights•T...
A case for ongoing structural support to maximise infectious disease modelling efficiency for future public health emergencies: a modelling perspective
A case for ongoing structural support to maximise infectious disease modelling efficiency for future public health emergencies: a modelling perspective
Available online 13 December 2023, 100734Author links open overlay panel, , , , , , , , , , Highlights•COVID-19 disease mo...
A method to estimate the serial interval distribution under partially-sampled data
A method to estimate the serial interval distribution under partially-sampled data
Available online 2 December 2023, 100733Author links open overlay panel, , , Highlights•We develop a novel framework to es...
Seasonality as a driver of pH1N12009 influenza vaccination campaign impact
Seasonality as a driver of pH1N12009 influenza vaccination campaign impact
Available online 27 November 2023, 100730Author links open overlay panel, , , , Highlights•We develop a seasonally forced ...
Variation in pneumococcal invasiveness metrics is driven by serotype carriage duration and initial risk of disease
Variation in pneumococcal invasiveness metrics is driven by serotype carriage duration and initial risk of disease
Available online 22 November 2023, 100731Author links open overlay panel, , , Highlights•Reliable metrics of pneumococcal ...
The variations of SIkJalpha model for COVID-19 forecasting and scenario projections
The variations of SIkJalpha model for COVID-19 forecasting and scenario projections
We proposed the SIkJalpha model at the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic (early 2020). Since then, as the pandemic evolve...
Mathematical methods for scaling from within-host to population-scale in infectious disease systems
Mathematical methods for scaling from within-host to population-scale in infectious disease systems
Available online 30 October 2023, 100724Author links open overlay panel, , , Highlights•We systematically review the liter...
Trypanosoma cruzi infection in dogs along the US-Mexico border: R0 changes with vector species composition
Trypanosoma cruzi infection in dogs along the US-Mexico border: R0 changes with vector species composition
KeywordsVertical life tablesAutocatalytic modelsCross-sectionalBasic reproduction numberBelgian malinoisGerman shepherdDat...
Estimation of waning vaccine effectiveness from population-level surveillance data in multi-variant epidemics
Estimation of waning vaccine effectiveness from population-level surveillance data in multi-variant epidemics
Monitoring time-varying vaccine effectiveness (e.g., due to waning of immunity and the emergence of novel variants) provid...
A nationwide lockdown and deaths due to COVID-19 in the Indian subcontinent
A nationwide lockdown and deaths due to COVID-19 in the Indian subcontinent
During the COVID-19 pandemic, the effects of nationwide lockdowns on health outcomes have been widely studied in Western, ...
Model-based estimates of chikungunya epidemiological parameters and outbreak risk from varied data types
Model-based estimates of chikungunya epidemiological parameters and outbreak risk from varied data types
Assessing the factors responsible for differences in outbreak severity for the same pathogen is a challenging task, since ...
Epidemiological characteristics and dynamic transmissions of COVID-19 pandemics in Chinese mainland: a trajectory clustering perspective analysis
Epidemiological characteristics and dynamic transmissions of COVID-19 pandemics in Chinese mainland: a trajectory clustering perspective analysis
BackgroundThe corona virus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has spread to more than 210 countries and regions around the w...
Bayesian monitoring of COVID-19 in Sweden
Bayesian monitoring of COVID-19 in Sweden
In an effort to provide regional decision support for the public healthcare, we design a data-driven compartment-based mod...
Estimating age-stratified transmission and reproduction numbers during the early exponential phase of an epidemic: A case study with COVID-19 data
Estimating age-stratified transmission and reproduction numbers during the early exponential phase of an epidemic: A case study with COVID-19 data
In a pending pandemic, early knowledge of age-specific disease parameters, e.g., susceptibility, infectivity, and the clin...
Bayesian reconstruction of SARS-CoV-2 transmissions highlights substantial proportion of negative serial intervals
Bayesian reconstruction of SARS-CoV-2 transmissions highlights substantial proportion of negative serial intervals
Author links open overlay panelCyril Geismar a, Vincent Nguyen b, Ellen Fragaszy c d, Madhumita Shrotri b, Annalan M D Nav...
SARS-CoV-2 transmission patterns in educational settings during the Alpha wave in Reggio-Emilia, Italy
Different monitoring and control policies have been implemented in schools to minimize the spread of SARS-CoV-2. Transmiss...