Prediction Under Interventions: Evaluation of Counterfactual Performance Using Longitudinal Observational Data

From the aDepartment of Medical Statistics, London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, London, United Kingdom

bDepartment of Biomedical Data Sciences, Leiden University Medical Center, Leiden, the Netherlands.

Submitted July 14, 2023; accepted January 10, 2024

R.H.K. was funded by UK Research and Innovation (Future Leaders Fellowship MR/S017968/1).

The authors report no conflicts of interest.

Supplemental digital content is available through direct URL citations in the HTML and PDF versions of this article (www.epidem.com).

R.H.K. and N.V.G. contributed equally to this work.

R code for replicating the simulation is provided at https://github.com/survival-lumc/Validation_Under_Interventions. Data used in the application are not currently available.

This manuscript was previously published on arXiv: https://doi.org/10.48550/arXiv.2304.10005.

Correspondence: Nan Van Geloven, Department of Biomedical Data Sciences, Leiden University Medical Center, Postzone S5-P, PO box 9600, 2300 RC Leiden, the Netherlands. E-mail: [email protected].

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