Estimated rates of progression to tuberculosis disease for persons infected with Mycobacterium tuberculosis in the United States

From the aDepartment of Global Health and Population, Harvard TH Chan School of Public Health, Boston MA

bDivision of Tuberculosis Elimination, National Center for HIV, Viral Hepatitis, STD, and TB Prevention, US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Atlanta GA

cDepartment of Epidemiology of Microbial Diseases, Yale School of Public Health, New Haven CT

dDepartment of Biostatistics, Harvard TH Chan School of Public Health, Boston MA

eDepartments of Epidemiology, Biostatistics, and Global Health, Boston University School of Public Health and Department of Medicine, Boston University School of Medicine, Boston, MA

fCenter for Health Policy/Center for Primary Care and Outcomes Research, Stanford University, Stanford CA

gCenter for Health Decision Science, Harvard TH Chan School of Public Health, Boston MA.

Submitted June 2, 2023; accepted December 8, 2023

Supported by the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, National Center for HIV, Viral Hepatitis, STD, and TB Prevention Epidemiologic and Economic Modeling Agreement (NEEMA; #5NU38PS004644), and the National Institutes of Health (R01AI146555-02). The findings and conclusions in this report are those of the authors and do not necessarily represent the views of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

The authors report no conflicts of interest.

Supplemental digital content is available through direct URL citations in the HTML and PDF versions of this article (www.epidem.com).

Apart from National TB Surveillance System data, all data used in this analysis represent deidentified publicly available datasets. National TB Surveillance System data contain information abstracted from the national tuberculosis case report form called the Report of Verified Case of Tuberculosis (RVCT) (OMB No. 0920-0728). These data have been reported voluntarily to CDC by state and local health departments and are protected under the Assurance of Confidentiality (Sections 306 and 308(d) of the Public Health Service Act, 42 U.S.C. 242k and 242m(d)), which prevents disclosure of any information that could be used to directly or indirectly identify patients. For more information, see the CDC Division of Tuberculosis Elimination Data Re-release Policy (at https://wonder.cdc.gov/wonder/help/TB/DTBE-Data-ReRelease-Policy-2022-update-2022-05-09.pdf). A limited dataset is available at http://wonder.cdc.gov/tb.html. Researchers seeking additional National TB Surveillance System data may request access through the National Center for Health Statistics’ Research Data Centers (https://www.cdc.gov/rdc/b1datatype/tuberculosis.htm). Computing code available upon request.

Correspondence: Nicolas A. Menzies, Department of Global Health and Population, Harvard TH Chan School of Public Health, 665 Huntington Ave, Boston MA 02115. E-mail: [email protected].

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