MODELS: a six-step framework for developing an infectious disease model

Risk factors play a critical role in the transmission and impact of infectious diseases. By understanding and identifying these factors, we can gain insights into the vulnerability of populations, the severity of disease outcomes, and the potential for disease spread. In this section, we explore two broad categories of risk factors: nature and social factors (Fig. 2).

Fig. 2figure 2

Risk factors on disease transmission

M3.1 Nature factors

Nature factors include a range of environmental, geographic, and ecological factors that influence the prevalence and distribution of infectious diseases. For example, meteorological factors, such as temperature, humidity, and rainfall patterns, directly affect the activity and transmission of pathogens. Geographic factors, including terrain, proximity to water bodies, and elevation, can affect the distribution of disease vectors or reservoirs. Ecological factors consider the intricate interactions among pathogens, hosts, and the environment, highlighting the complex dynamics that contribute to disease emergence and persistence.

Geographical factors have a significant impact on disease prevalence. The distribution of diseases and their vectors is influenced by the terrain, proximity to water bodies, and elevation. For example, the geographical distribution of vector organisms varies considerably. Meteorological factors play crucial roles in the transmission dynamics of insect-borne infectious and zoonotic diseases. Temperature directly affects the activity and growth cycles of insect vectors. Furthermore, temperature also has a greater impact on respiratory infectious diseases; lower temperatures during winter, combined with weakened human resistance, tend to result in a higher incidence of respiratory infections such as influenza.

Ecological and meteorological factors significantly contribute to the prevalence of infectious diseases. These factors encompass the intricate interactions between pathogens, hosts, and the environment. Disruptions in ecosystems, such as habitat fragmentation, deforestation, and changes in land use, alter the distribution and abundance of disease vectors and reservoirs, leading to increased contact between humans, wildlife, and vectors. This heightened interaction facilitates the spillover of zoonotic diseases into human populations. The ecological balance within ecosystems plays a crucial role in the amplification or suppression of infectious diseases.

M3.2: Social factors

Social factors encompass various societal and behavioral aspects that influence the transmission of infectious diseases. These factors include socioeconomic conditions, living standards, healthcare access and infrastructure, educational levels, cultural practices, and population density.

Socioeconomic conditions and living standards significantly affect the disease spread. Access to clean and hygienic living environments free from toxins is essential for reducing the occurrence of certain diseases.

Healthcare access and the level of public health services are critical factors affecting infectious disease outcomes [2]. Improved medical and health conditions coupled with robust public health measures enhance disease prediction, diagnosis, and treatment. Increased vaccine coverage and improved detection systems reduce the incidence of infectious diseases.

Moreover, the social system and speed of government response significantly affect epidemic control. The strict enforcement of importation measures, quarantine protocols, and effective treatment strategies have proven crucial in containing the spread of infectious diseases, as exemplified during the COVID-19 pandemic.

Recognizing the interplay between social factors and infectious diseases is vital for effective disease management and prevention. By understanding the societal context, interventions can be tailored to address specific risk factors and promote behavioral changes. To achieve comprehensive and sustainable disease control, collaboration between PHSMs and environmental factors is essential.

Overall, a comprehensive understanding of the social factors and other epidemiological considerations is crucial for designing and implementing effective strategies to mitigate the impact of infectious diseases and protect public health.

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