Continuous Outcome Estimation in N-of-1 Trials for Accelerated Decision-Making

Abstract

N-of-1 trials aim to determine the therapeutic effect for a single individual. This individualized approach necessitates collecting multiple data points over time through repeated alternating periods of active treatment and a comparator or control condition. The extended duration of the treatment periods may increase patient burden, prolong placebo exposure, and increase the likelihood of study discontinuation. In theory, treatment responders (or non-responders) can be identified early during the trial if the therapeutic effect is strong (or completely lacking). There are no theoretical constraints to evaluate treatment efficacy more regularly – not only after a predetermined number of treatment periods – given that the individualized character of the N-of-1 study permits a statistical model update as soon as new data becomes accessible. Regularly updating estimates on treatment effects allows clinicians to accelerate clinical decision-making regarding N-of-1 study termination. This study examines the importance of continuous treatment effect estimation in N-of-1 trials through simulation and re-analysis of existing trial datasets of neurological diseases. Results indicate that treatment efficacy decisions can be expedited when outcome estimation is performed continuously rather than delayed until the end of the trial.

Competing Interest Statement

The authors have declared no competing interest.

Funding Statement

MING Foundation (VD, WO, KB, FJ); Health-Holland grant number LSHM21053-SGF (VD, WO, KB)

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I confirm all relevant ethical guidelines have been followed, and any necessary IRB and/or ethics committee approvals have been obtained.

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I confirm that all necessary patient/participant consent has been obtained and the appropriate institutional forms have been archived, and that any patient/participant/sample identifiers included were not known to anyone (e.g., hospital staff, patients or participants themselves) outside the research group so cannot be used to identify individuals.

Yes

I understand that all clinical trials and any other prospective interventional studies must be registered with an ICMJE-approved registry, such as ClinicalTrials.gov. I confirm that any such study reported in the manuscript has been registered and the trial registration ID is provided (note: if posting a prospective study registered retrospectively, please provide a statement in the trial ID field explaining why the study was not registered in advance).

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Yes

Footnotes

Funding information: MING Foundation (VD, WO, KB, FJ); Health-Holland grant number LSHM21053-SGF (VD, WO, KB)

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