The effectiveness of cervical perivascular sympathectomy (CPVS) in enhancing upper limb motor function in children with cerebral palsy is unclear, and the factors that influence the effectiveness of the surgery have not been documented.

To investigate the effectiveness of CPVS in enhancing upper limb motor function in children with cerebral palsy and develop a predictive chart for potential associated adverse outcomes

The study included 187 children with cerebral palsy who underwent CPVS at the Cerebral Palsy Center, Second Affiliated Hospital of Xinjiang Medical University, between January 2019 and January 2022. Patients were categorized into two groups based on prognostic outcomes: those with adverse and favorable prognoses. Demographic and laboratory data were collected and analyzed from both groups. To identify independent predictors of poor post-CPVS upper limb motor function outcomes, statistical techniques, including univariate analysis and binary logistic regression, were applied. Subsequently, these predictors were integrated to formulate a comprehensive predictive model.

In this cohort of 187 children with cerebral palsy undergoing CPVS, 68 (36.36%) exhibited a favorable prognosis for upper limb motor function and 119 (63.64%) demonstrated an adverse prognosis. Age, motor function, and serum albumin levels were identified as significant prognostic factors via logistic regression analysis. To develop the model, we divided the sample into a training set (70%, n = 131) and a validation set (30%, n = 56). Employing motor function, serum albumin levels, and age as variables, we crafted a predictive model. The model's performance, reflected by the area under the curve was 0.813 (0.732, 0.894) in the training set and 0.770 (0.647, 0.892) in the validation set, demonstrating its robust predictive capability for post-CPVS adverse outcomes. Furthermore, the consistency curve and Hosmer–Lemeshow test (χ2 = 8.808, p = 0.359) illustrated a strong concordance between the model's predictions of poor prognosis and the actual incidence rate.

CPVS demonstrates notable effectiveness in improving upper limb motor function in CP. Independent prognostic factors identified encompass motor function, age, and serum albumin levels. The composite predictive model shows potential for clinical applications.