Circulating biomarkers of bone metabolism are significantly associated with overall survival (OS) in men with advanced prostate cancer. In the SWOG S1216 phase III trial, we showed that elevated bone biomarkers are significantly associated with an increased risk of death in hormone-sensitive prostate cancer (HSPC) regardless of the status of bone metastases, identifying three risk groups with differential OS outcomes based on bone biomarker status. Here we report the association of bone biomarkers with OS in men with HSPC and documented skeletal metastases as part of a planned subset analysis of S1216.

Bone resorption [C-telopeptide (CTx); Pyridinoline (PYD)] and bone formation markers [C-terminal collagen propeptide (CICP); bone alkaline phosphatase (BAP)] were assessed in blood from men with bone metastatic HSPC. Patients were randomly divided into training (n = 238) and validation (n = 475) sets. In the training set, recursive partitioning that maximizes discrimination of OS was used to identify the dichotomous cut-point for each biomarker and for a combination of biomarker split points to define prognostic groups. In the validation set, Cox proportional hazards models were used to assess the impact of biomarkers on OS, adjusted for patient and tumor characteristics.

Of 1279 men, 713 had both baseline bone metastases and evaluable bone biomarkers. Patient characteristics were similar between the overall population and the subset with bone metastases. Elevated levels of CICP, CTX, and PYD were strongly prognostic for OS. Hazard ratios (95% CI) for OS adjusted for treatment arm and baseline clinical variables were: BAP–1.31 (0.93, 1.84), p = 0.12; CICP–1.58 (1.09, 2.29), p < 0.02; CTx – 1.55 (1.12, 2.15), p = 0.008; and PYD–1.66 (1.27, 2.217), p = 0.0002. There was no evidence of interaction between elevated biomarkers and treatment (all p > 0.2). Recursive partitioning algorithms identified four groups of patients with differential OS outcomes based on bone biomarkers, adjusted for baseline clinical variables, with median OS ranging from 2.3 years (highest risk group) to 7.5 years (lowest risk group).

In this planned S1216 subset analysis of men with HSPC and bone metastases, elevated serum markers of bone metabolism were significantly associated with worse OS. Bone biomarker levels alone and in combination with patient and tumor characteristics identify unique subsets of men with differential OS outcomes.

NCT01809691