Objective

This study compared the importance of age at adiposity rebound versus childhood BMI to subsequent BMI levels in a longitudinal analysis.

Methods

From the electronic health records of 4.35 million children, a total of 12,228 children were selected who were examined at least once each year between ages 2 and 7 years and reexamined after age 14 years. The minimum number of examinations per child was six. Each child’s rebound age was estimated using locally weighted regression (lowess), a smoothing technique.

Results

Children who had a rebound age < 3 years were, on average, 7 kg/m2 heavier after age 14 years than were children with a rebound age ≥ 7 years. However, BMI after age 14 years was more strongly associated with BMI at the rebound than with rebound age (r = 0.57 vs. −0.44). Furthermore, a child’s BMI at age 3 years provided more information on BMI after age 14 years than did rebound age. In addition, rebound age provided no information on subsequent BMI if a child’s BMI at age 6 years was known.

Conclusions

Although rebound age is related to BMI after age 14 years, a child’s BMI at age 3 years provides more information and is easier to obtain.