In September 2022, an outbreak of Sudan virus (SUDV) was confirmed in Uganda. Following the first case report, we developed an individual based modelling platform (IBM-SUDV) to estimate the burden of cases and deaths, as well as the duration of the unfolding SUDV outbreak, using different scenarios. Modelled projections were within the range of cases and deaths ultimately observed.

The authors have declared no competing interest.

Funding for the work reported was provided by the US National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Disease/National Institutes of Health (NIAID/NIH), grants number U01AI51378 to the Center for Research in Emerging Infectious Diseases Coordinating Center (DB and RR) and grants number U01AI151799 to the Centre for Research in Emerging Infectious Diseases - East and Central Africa (CN, RB, NK).

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