Methods for reviewing epidemiological signals are necessary to building and maintaining data-driven public health capabilities. We have developed a novel approach for assessing the plausibility of infectious disease forecasts and surveillance data. The PLANES (PLausibility ANalysis of Epidemiological Signals) methodology is designed to be multi-dimensional and flexible, yielding an overall score based on individual component assessments that can be applied at various temporal and spatial granularities. Here we describe PLANES, provide a demonstration analysis, and discuss how to use the open-source rplanes R package. PLANES aims to enable modelers and public health end-users to evaluate forecast plausibility and surveillance data integrity, ultimately improving early warning systems and informing evidence-based decision-making.
Competing Interest StatementThe authors have declared no competing interest.
Funding StatementThis work was supported in part by a subaward to Signature Science, LLC from the Council of State and Territorial Epidemiologists (CSTE) via the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) Cooperative Agreement No. NU38OT000297.
Author DeclarationsI confirm all relevant ethical guidelines have been followed, and any necessary IRB and/or ethics committee approvals have been obtained.
Yes
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Yes
I understand that all clinical trials and any other prospective interventional studies must be registered with an ICMJE-approved registry, such as ClinicalTrials.gov. I confirm that any such study reported in the manuscript has been registered and the trial registration ID is provided (note: if posting a prospective study registered retrospectively, please provide a statement in the trial ID field explaining why the study was not registered in advance).
Yes
I have followed all appropriate research reporting guidelines, such as any relevant EQUATOR Network research reporting checklist(s) and other pertinent material, if applicable.
Yes
Data AvailabilityAll data produced in the present study are available upon reasonable request to the authors.
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