Type 1 diabetes (T1D) has a large genetic component, and expanded genetic studies of T1D can lead to novel biological and therapeutic discovery and improved risk prediction. In this study, we performed genetic association and fine-mapping analyses in 817,718 European ancestry samples genome-wide and 29,746 samples at the MHC locus, which identified 165 independent risk signals for T1D of which 19 were novel. We used risk variants to train a machine learning model (named T1GRS) to predict T1D, which highly differentiated T1D from non-disease and type 2 diabetes (T2D) in Europeans as well as African Americans at or beyond the level of current standards. We identified extensive non-linear interactions between risk loci in T1GRS, for example between HLA-DQB1*57 and INS, coding and non-coding HLA alleles, and DEXI, INS and other beta cell loci, that provided mechanistic insight and improved risk prediction. T1D individuals formed distinct clusters based on genetic features from T1GRS which had significant differences in age of onset, HbA1c, and renal disease severity. Finally, we provided T1GRS in formats to enhance accessibility of risk prediction to any user and computing environment. Overall, the improved genetic discovery and prediction of T1D will have wide clinical, therapeutic, and research applications.

KJG has done consulting for Genentech, received honoraria from Pfizer, and is a shareholder of Neurocrine biosciences.

The work in this study was funded by UCSD internal funding including through the Winkler Endowed Chair in Type 1 Diabetes to K.J.G., and the Mark Foundation for Cancer Research to H.C.

I confirm all relevant ethical guidelines have been followed, and any necessary IRB and/or ethics committee approvals have been obtained.

Yes

The details of the IRB/oversight body that provided approval or exemption for the research described are given below:

The Institutional Review Board (IRB) of the University of California San Diego gave ethical approval for this work

I confirm that all necessary patient/participant consent has been obtained and the appropriate institutional forms have been archived, and that any patient/participant/sample identifiers included were not known to anyone (e.g., hospital staff, patients or participants themselves) outside the research group so cannot be used to identify individuals.

Yes

I understand that all clinical trials and any other prospective interventional studies must be registered with an ICMJE-approved registry, such as ClinicalTrials.gov. I confirm that any such study reported in the manuscript has been registered and the trial registration ID is provided (note: if posting a prospective study registered retrospectively, please provide a statement in the trial ID field explaining why the study was not registered in advance).

Yes

I have followed all appropriate research reporting guidelines, such as any relevant EQUATOR Network research reporting checklist(s) and other pertinent material, if applicable.

Yes

Summary statistics from the T1D GWAS will be made available in the GWAS catalog. All other data produced in the study are either contained in the manuscript or available upon reasonable request to the authors.