Investigating the Impact of Segregation and Integration on Infection Dynamics: Analysis of a Cholera Model in a Two-Population System

Abstract

We present a novel dynamic model designed to depict Cholera outbreaks within a two-population framework featuring two environmental reservoirs. The model is designed to emulate the impact of segregation or integration between two populations on the transmission of the disease and infections throughout the entire community, both with and without non-medicinal interventions. This is achieved by allowing infectious individuals to interact with the reservoir of the alternate population at different levels of suppression, in addition to their regular interaction with their own reservoir. We find out that increased suppression of cross community interaction reduces the number of infections in the overall population as well as in the population with less contamination and contact. Additionally, we predict significant delays in the occurrence of peak infections, affording public health authorities crucial time for intervention. Lowering cross-immunity interactions also leads to a decrease in bacterial concentrations in environmental reservoirs. Finally, we demonstrate that non-medicinal interventions, including sanitation and water purification, would significantly reduce and delay infections, providing a valuable time frame for implementing additional medicinal measures.

Competing Interest Statement

The authors have declared no competing interest.

Funding Statement

This study did not receive any funding

Author Declarations

I confirm all relevant ethical guidelines have been followed, and any necessary IRB and/or ethics committee approvals have been obtained.

Yes

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Yes

I understand that all clinical trials and any other prospective interventional studies must be registered with an ICMJE-approved registry, such as ClinicalTrials.gov. I confirm that any such study reported in the manuscript has been registered and the trial registration ID is provided (note: if posting a prospective study registered retrospectively, please provide a statement in the trial ID field explaining why the study was not registered in advance).

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I have followed all appropriate research reporting guidelines, such as any relevant EQUATOR Network research reporting checklist(s) and other pertinent material, if applicable.

Yes

Data Availability

No data has been used in this study

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