In spite of three-year pandemic time caused by Covid-19, the trend and impact of the evolution of SARS-CoV-2 remain unclear. For newly emerging variants, it is still hard to predict how possibly they could impact the pandemic/endemic course. The spreading of highly transmissible variant XBB.1.5 and JN.1 has brought many questions. Could the high transmission ability of such variant lead to a different global spreading pattern compared to other previously existing variants of concern (VOCs)? How that may possibly affect the further evolution of SARS-CoV-2? This study aimed to explore the evolution course of SARS-CoV-2 variants, with focus on VOCs. The investigation was carried out through integration of multiple virus genomic epidemiology approaches. Phylogeny and phylodynamic analyses were used to investigate dynamic changes of virus evolution course. Through this study, an overview check of the evolution events of SARS-CoV-2 VOCs, including the alpha variant, delta variant and omicron variant, has been performed, and the further course of evolution has been predicted, especially taking the potential impact of the spreading of XBB.1.5 and JN.1 into consideration. Furthermore, the early spreading pattern of XBB.1.5 was compared with the early spreading patterns of BQ.1.1 to investigate the impact of evolution on virus spreading pattern. The information acquired through this study provided insights into the effect of SARS-CoV-2 evolution on spreading pattern and the potential impact of the spreading of XBB.1.5 and JN.1 on the further evolution of SARS-CoV-2.

The authors have declared no competing interest.

B.Y. is in part supported by a funding from German Research Foundation (DFG Project Number: 458912928; DA 592/12-1 | YI 175/1-1).

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