Background: We did this study to develop and validate a risk score for new chronic kidney disease (CKD), focusing on predictors that are typically available in Canadian administrative health datasets. Methods: This was a retrospective population-based cohort study using data from the Alberta Kidney Disease Network database: 3,558,192 adult participants were followed from April 1, 2007 to March 31, 2019. We developed a simple score to predict reduced glomerular filtration rate using bootstrapping (100 iterations with replacement) and internally validated the score using the original dataset. Findings: The final score had a maximum total of 9 points: age 50-70 years, hypertension, diabetes and heart failure also received a single point, and age >70 years and severe albuminuria received three points. The C-statistic of the score for incident CKD was 0.9272 and the Brier score was 0.0053, indicating excellent discrimination. Graphical analysis demonstrated that predicted risk closely aligned with the observed risk of developing CKD, indicating a well-calibrated model. Interpretation: We have derived and internally validated a risk score for new CKD which is suitable for application to routinely collected Canadian administrative health data.

The authors have declared no competing interest.

The study was funded by MTs David Freeze Chair in Health Services Research at the University of Calgary.

I confirm all relevant ethical guidelines have been followed, and any necessary IRB and/or ethics committee approvals have been obtained.

Yes

The details of the IRB/oversight body that provided approval or exemption for the research described are given below:

The institutional review boards at the Universities of Calgary and Alberta (REB16-1575/psite00000147) approved the study and waived the requirement for informed consent.

I confirm that all necessary patient/participant consent has been obtained and the appropriate institutional forms have been archived, and that any patient/participant/sample identifiers included were not known to anyone (e.g., hospital staff, patients or participants themselves) outside the research group so cannot be used to identify individuals.

Yes

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I have followed all appropriate research reporting guidelines, such as any relevant EQUATOR Network research reporting checklist(s) and other pertinent material, if applicable.

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We cannot make our dataset available to other researchers due to our contractual arrangements with the provincial health ministry (Alberta Health), who is the data custodian. Researchers may make requests to obtain a similar dataset at https://absporu.ca/research-services/service-application/.

https://absporu.ca/research-services/service-application/