Available online 27 February 2024, 100754

We proposed a modified catalytic model framework with maternal immunity.

We made use jointly of case and serology data to estimate transmission intensity.

The results estimate the high-level transmission of coxsackievirus A6 and coxsackievirus A10 in Vietnam.

The results identify the age with highest infection risk as 1-year-old.

This study emphasizes the importance of multivalent vaccines and active surveillance for various serotypes.

Hand, foot and mouth disease (HFMD) is highly prevalent in the Asia Pacific region, particularly in Vietnam. To develop effective interventions and efficient vaccination programs, we inferred the age-time-specific transmission patterns of HFMD serotypes enterovirus A71 (EV-A71), coxsackievirus A6 (CV-A6), coxsackievirus A10 (CV-A10), coxsackievirus A16 (CV-A16) in Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam from a case data collected during 2013-2018 and a serological survey data collected in 2015 and 2017. We proposed a catalytic model framework with good adaptability to incorporate maternal immunity using various mathematical functions. Our results indicate the high-level transmission of CV-A6 and CV-A10 which is not obvious in the case data, due to the variation of disease severity across serotypes. Our results provide statistical evidence supporting the strong association between severe illness and CV-A6 and EV-A71 infections. The HFMD dynamic pattern presents a cyclical pattern with large outbreaks followed by a decline in subsequent years. Additionally, we identify the age group with highest risk of infection as 1-2 years and emphasize the risk of future outbreaks as over 50% of children aged 6-7 years were estimated to be susceptible to CV-A16 and EV-A71. Our study highlights the importance of multivalent vaccines and active surveillance for different serotypes, supports early vaccination prior to 1 year old, and points out the potential utility for vaccinating children older than 5 years old in Vietnam.

Hand

Foot and mouth disease

Serological data

Catalytic model

Force of infection

The original data, preprocessed data, model results and the corresponding codes are available at https://github.com/chenyn226/hfmd-foi.git.

© 2024 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier B.V.