Human papillomavirus-associated oropharyngeal squamous cell carcinomas (HPV+OPSCC) release circulating tumor HPV DNA (ctHPVDNA) into the blood which we, and others, have shown is an accurate real-time biomarker of disease status. In a prior prospective observational trial of 34 patients with AJCC 8 stage I-II HPV+OPSCC treated with surgery, we reported that ctHPVDNA was rapidly cleared within hours of surgery in patients who underwent complete cancer extirpation, yet remained elevated in those with macroscopic residual disease. The primary outcomes of this study were to assess 2-year OS and RFS between patients with and without molecular residual disease (MRD) following completion of treatment in this prospective cohort. MRD was defined as persistent elevation of ctHPVDNA at two consecutive time points, without clinical evidence of disease. The secondary outcomes were 2-year OS and RFS between patients with and without detectable MRD after surgery. We observed that patients with MRD after treatment completion were more likely to recur compared to patients without MRD, while there was no difference in recurrence rates between patients with MRD and without MRD on postoperative day 1. OS did not significantly differ between patients with MRD after surgery or treatment completion compared to patients without MRD; however, time to death was significantly different between the groups in both settings, suggesting that with a larger sample size OS would differ significantly between the groups or that the impact of MRD detection on survival is time dependent.

Daniel Faden has received research funding or In-Kind funding from Bristol-Myers Squibb, Calico, Predicine, BostonGene, Neogenomics and receives consulting fees from Merck, Noetic, Chrysalis Biomedical Advisors, Arcadia and Focus.

Funding for this work came from NIH/NIDCR R03DE030550 (Daniel L. Faden).

I confirm all relevant ethical guidelines have been followed, and any necessary IRB and/or ethics committee approvals have been obtained.

Yes

The details of the IRB/oversight body that provided approval or exemption for the research described are given below:

All patients presenting for treatment of newly diag- nosed HPV+OPSCC at Massachusetts Eye and Ear/ Massachusetts General Hospital from January 21, 2020, to March 31, 2021, were approached for informed con- sent and consecutively enrolled in this prospective obser- vational biomarker study. Patients gave written informed consent to a protocol approved by the Dana-Farber/ Harvard Cancer Center Institutional Review Board (DFCI 18-653). The study was conducted in accordance with the US Common Rule.

I confirm that all necessary patient/participant consent has been obtained and the appropriate institutional forms have been archived, and that any patient/participant/sample identifiers included were not known to anyone (e.g., hospital staff, patients or participants themselves) outside the research group so cannot be used to identify individuals.

Yes

I understand that all clinical trials and any other prospective interventional studies must be registered with an ICMJE-approved registry, such as ClinicalTrials.gov. I confirm that any such study reported in the manuscript has been registered and the trial registration ID is provided (note: if posting a prospective study registered retrospectively, please provide a statement in the trial ID field explaining why the study was not registered in advance).

Yes

I have followed all appropriate research reporting guidelines, such as any relevant EQUATOR Network research reporting checklist(s) and other pertinent material, if applicable.

Yes

All data produced in the present study are available upon reasonable request to the authors.