Heterogeneity of treatment effect of higher dose dexamethasone by geographic region in patients with COVID-19 and severe hypoxemia - A post hoc evaluation of the COVID STEROID 2 trial

Abstract

Background: The COVID-STEROID 2 trial found high probability of benefit with dexamethasone 12 mg vs. 6 mg daily among patients with COVID-19 and severe hypoxemia. There was suggestion of heterogeneity of treatment effects (HTE)between patients enrolled from Europe vs. India on the primary outcome. Whether there was HTE by geographical region for the remaining prespecified patient-important outcomes is unclear. Methods: We evaluated HTE by geographical region (Europe vs. India) for all secondary outcomes assessed in the trial with analyses adjusted for stratification variables. The results are presented as risk differences (RDs) or mean differences (MDs) with 99% confidence intervals (CIs) and P-values from interaction tests.   Results: We found HTE for mortality at day 28 (RD for Europe -8.3% (99 % CI: -17.7 to 1.0) vs. RD for India 0.1% (99% CI: -10.0 to 10.0)), mortality at day 90 (RD for Europe -7.4% (99% CI: -17.1 to 2.0) vs. RD for India -1.4% (99% CI:-12.8 to 9.8)), mortality at day 180 (RD for Europe -6.7% (99%CI:-16.4 to 2.9) vs. RD for India -1.0% (99%CI:-12.3 to 10.3)), and number of days alive without life support at day 90 (MD for Europe 6.1 days (99% CI:-1.3 to 13.4) vs. MD for India 1.7 days (99% CI:-8.4 to11.8)). For serious adverse reactions, the direction was reversed (RD for Europe -1.0% (99% CI:-7.1 to 5.2) vs. RD for India -5.3% (99% CI: -16.2 to 5.0). For HRQoL outcomes, MD in EQ-5D-5L index values was 0.08(99%CI: -0.01 to 0.16) for Europe and 0.02(99%CI:-0.10 to 0.14) for India. For EQ VAS, MD was 4.4(95%CI:-3.1 to 11.9) for Europe and 2.6(99%CI:-9.0 to 14.2) for India. P values for all tests of interaction were ≥0.12.     Conclusions: In this post hoc exploratory analysis, we found that higher dose dexamethasone may have lower beneficial effects for patients in India as compared with those in Europe without an increase in serious adverse reactions.

Competing Interest Statement

None for the authors. The Department of Intensive Care at Copenhagen University Hospital Rigshospitalet has received funding for other projects from The Novo Nordisk Foundation, Pfizer, Sygeforsikringen danmark, and Fresenius Kabi, and conducts contract research for AM-Pharma.

Clinical Protocols

https://osf.io/6tfrk

Funding Statement

The COVID STEROID 2 trial was funded by The Novo Nordisk Foundation and supported by Rigshospitalet’s Research Council.

Author Declarations

I confirm all relevant ethical guidelines have been followed, and any necessary IRB and/or ethics committee approvals have been obtained.

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The details of the IRB/oversight body that provided approval or exemption for the research described are given below:

This current manuscript is a secondary analysis of previously published trial data. The original trial was approved by the Institutional Ethics Committee at Apollo Main Hospital, Chennai, India. The reference number is: Apollo Main Hospital(AMH)-C-S-021/06-20

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I understand that all clinical trials and any other prospective interventional studies must be registered with an ICMJE-approved registry, such as ClinicalTrials.gov. I confirm that any such study reported in the manuscript has been registered and the trial registration ID is provided (note: if posting a prospective study registered retrospectively, please provide a statement in the trial ID field explaining why the study was not registered in advance).

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Data Availability

Data are available upon reasonable request. Deidentified patient data will be made available beginning 6 months after publication of the study and ending at 2 years. All requests for data sharing must be accompanied by a formal request, a study proposal with clear statement of aims and hypotheses and a statistical analysis plan. All applications will be assessed by the COVID-STEROID 2 Trial Management Committee. Applications from investigators with suitable academic capability to conduct the proposed work will be given consideration. Any proposal will require approval from the ethics committee which approved the conduct of this trial prior to sharing of any patient data. If a proposal is approved, a signed data transfer agreement will be required before data sharing.

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