Review of machine learning techniques to predict postpartum depression risk

Supervised learning was the main machine learning technique employed.

Studies that involved model translation had not been tested clinically.

All studies showed high bias risk and over half showed high application risk.

Postpartum depression (PPD) presents a serious health problem among women and their families. Machine learning (ML) is a rapidly advancing field with increasing utility in predicting PPD risk. We aimed to synthesize and evaluate the quality of studies on application of ML techniques in predicting PPD risk.

We conducted a systematic search of eight databases, identifying English and Chinese studies on ML techniques for predicting PPD risk and ML techniques with performance metrics. Quality of the studies involved was evaluated using the Prediction Model Risk of Bias Assessment Tool.

Seventeen studies involving 62 prediction models were included. Supervised learning was the main ML technique employed and the common ML models were support vector machine, random forest and logistic regression. Five studies (30 %) reported both internal and external validation. Two studies involved model translation, but none were tested clinically. All studies showed a high risk of bias, and more than half showed high application risk.

Including Chinese articles slightly reduced the reproducibility of the review. Model performance was not quantitatively analyzed owing to inconsistent metrics and the absence of methods for correlation meta-analysis.

Researchers have paid more attention to model development than to validation, and few have focused on improvement and innovation. Models for predicting PPD risk continue to emerge. However, few have achieved the acceptable quality standards. Therefore, ML techniques for successfully predicting PPD risk are yet to be deployed in clinical environments.

Postpartum depression

Risk prediction models

Machine learning

Supervised learning

© 2022 Published by Elsevier B.V.