Impact of the 2019/2020 Australian megafires on Air Quality and Health

The Australian 2019/2020 bushfires were unprecedented in their extent and intensity, causing a catastrophic loss of habitat, human and animal life across eastern-Australia. We use a regional air quality model to assess the impact of the bushfires on particulate matter with a diameter less than 2.5 µm (PM2.5) concentrations and the associated health impact from short-term population exposure to bushfire PM2.5. The mean population AQI exposure between September and February in the fires and no fires simulations indicates an additional ∼437,000 people were exposed to ‘Poor’ or worse AQI levels due to the fires. The AQ impact was concentrated in the cities of Sydney, Newcastle-Maitland, Canberra-Queanbeyan and Melbourne. Between October and February 171 (95% CI: 66 – 291) deaths were brought forward due to short-term exposure to bushfire PM2.5. The health burden was largest in New South Wales (NSW) (109 (95% CI: 41 – 176) deaths brought forward), Queensland (15 (95% CI: 5 – 24)) and Victoria (35 (95% CI: 13 – 56)). This represents 38%, 13% and 30% of the total deaths brought forward by short-term exposure to all PM2.5. At a city-level 65 (95% CI: 24 – 105)), 23 (95% CI: 9 –38)) and 9 (95% CI: 4 – 14)) deaths were brought forward from short-term exposure to bushfire PM2.5, accounting for 36%, 20% and 64% of the total deaths brought forward from all PM2.5. Thus, the bushfires caused substantial AQ and health impacts across eastern-Australia. Climate change is projected to increase bushfire risk, therefore future fire management policies should consider this.

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