Known basic and effective reproduction numbers are based on registered (visible) cases despite that asymptomatic and unregistered patients are characteristic of almost all infection diseases. New reproduction numbers - the ratios of the real numbers of infectious persons (symptomatic and asymptomatic) at different moments of time and a simple method of their estimation with the use of visible (registered) cases only were proposed. The novel general SIR (susceptible-infectious-removed) model was used and the results of calculations for the pertussis epidemic in England are presented. New approach could help to control different epidemics, in particular new waves of COVID-19.

The authors have declared no competing interest.

This paper was written with the support of the INI-LMS Solidarity Programme at the University of Warwick, UK.

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