Available online 12 March 2024, 111265

All forms of drinking in mid adolescence is associated with alcohol use disorder in late adolescence.

Heavy episodic drinking in mid adolescence is associated with the highest risk of alcohol use disorder in late adolescence.

Any lifetime use of alcohol in mid adolescence is responsible for the highest population attributable fraction of alcohol use disorder in late adolescence.

About one in four cases of alcohol use disorder in late adolescence is attributed to any lifetime use of alcohol in mid adolescence.

About half of those engaging in heavy episodic drinking during mid adolescence had and alcohol use disorder in late adolescence.

This study addresses a significant gap in existing research by investigating the longitudinal relationship between various measures of alcohol use and the development of alcohol use disorders (AUDs) in a cohort of Swedish adolescents.

A prospective longitudinal survey was conducted on 3,999 adolescents in Sweden who were in 9th grade in 2017 and were followed up in 2019. Baseline assessments included lifetime alcohol use, recent use (past 30 days), risky drinking (AUDIT-C), and heavy episodic drinking (HED). Follow-up assessments comprised eleven items measuring DSM-5 AUD criteria. The study explores prospective associations between these diverse alcohol use measures and the occurrence of AUD, while also calculating population attributable fractions (PAF).

The proportion of drinkers who met the criteria for AUD at follow-up was 31.8%. All baseline measures of alcohol use exhibited associations with subsequent AUD. Notably, the HED group demonstrated the highest prevalence of AUD at 51.4% (p<.001). However, when calculating PAFs, any lifetime alcohol use emerged as the most substantial contributor, accounting for 10.8% of all subsequent AUD cases.

This study underscores that alcohol use during mid-adolescence heightens the risk of developing AUD in late adolescence. Among the various measures, heavy episodic drinking presents the highest risk for later AUD. From a public health perspective, preventing any alcohol use emerges as the most effective strategy to mitigate the population-level burden of AUD.

Alcohol

adolescent

survey

DSM-5

longitudinal

© 2024 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier B.V.