Total knee replacement (TKR) is the gold-standard treatment for end-stage chronic osteoarthritis pain, yet many patients report chronic postoperative pain after TKR. The search for preoperative predictors for chronic postoperative pain following TKR has been studied with inconsistent findings. This study investigates the predictive value of quantitative sensory testing (QST) and PainDETECT for postoperative pain 3, 6, and 12 months post-TKR. We assessed baseline and postoperative (3- and 6-months) QST measures in 77 patients with knee OA (KOA) and 41 healthy controls, along with neuropathic pain scores in patients (PainDETECT). QST parameters included pressure pain pressure threshold (PPT), pain tolerance threshold (PTT), conditioned pain modulation (CPM), and temporal summation (TS) using cuff algometry, alongside mechanical hyperalgesia, and mechanical temporal summation to repeated pinprick stimulation. Compared to healthy controls, KOA patients at baseline demonstrated hyperalgesia to pinprick stimulation at the medial OA-affected knee and cuff pressure on the ipsilateral calf. Lower cuff algometry PTT and mechanical pinprick hyperalgesia were associated with baseline KOA pain intensity. Moreover, baseline pinprick pain hyperalgesia explained 25% of variance in pain intensity 12 months post-TKR and preoperative neuropathic pain scores also captured 30% and 20% of the variance in postoperative pain at 6- and 12-months, respectively. A decrease in mechanical pinprick hyperalgesia from before surgery to 3 months after TKR was associated with lower postoperative pain at the 12 months post-TKR follow-up, and vice-versa. Our findings suggest that preoperative pinprick hyperalgesia and PainDETECT neuropathic-like pain symptoms show predictive value for the development of chronic post-TKR pain.

The authors have declared no competing interest.

This work was supported by the National Institutes of Health grants to AVA: P50 DA044121 and grant R01AR074274. Center for Neuroplasticity and Pain (CNAP) is supported by the Danish National Research Foundation (DNRF121). The Center for Mathematical Modeling of Knee Osteoarthritis (MathKOA) is funded by the Novo Nordisk Foundation (NNF21OC0065373).

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The details of the IRB/oversight body that provided approval or exemption for the research described are given below:

The study was approved by the Northwestern University Institutional Review Board (STU00207973).

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All data produced in the present study are available upon reasonable request to the authors