Predicting Running Performance and Adaptations from Intervals at Maximal Sustainable Effort

Int J Sports Med
DOI: 10.1055/a-2024-9490

Olli-Pekka Nuuttila

1   Faculty of Sport and Health Sciences, University of Jyväskylä, Jyväskylä, Finland

,

Pekka Matomäki

1   Faculty of Sport and Health Sciences, University of Jyväskylä, Jyväskylä, Finland

,

Heikki Kyröläinen

1   Faculty of Sport and Health Sciences, University of Jyväskylä, Jyväskylä, Finland

,

Ari Nummela

2   Finnish Institute of High Performance Sport KIHU, Jyväskylä, Finland

› Author Affiliations Funding Information The Foundation of Sports Institute —; The Finnish Sports Research Foundation —; Firstbeat Analytics Oy —; Polar Electro Oy
› Further Information Also available at   SFX Search  Buy Article Permissions and Reprints Abstract

This study examined the predictive quality of intervals performed at maximal sustainable effort to predict 3-km and 10-km running times. In addition, changes in interval performance and associated changes in running performance were investigated. Either 6-week (10-km group, n=29) or 2-week (3-km group, n=16) interval training periods were performed by recreational runners. A linear model was created for both groups based on the running speed of the first 6×3-min interval session and the test run of the preceding week (T1). The accuracy of the model was tested with the running speed of the last interval session and the test run after the training period (T2). Pearson correlation was used to analyze relationships between changes in running speeds during the tests and interval sessions. At T2, the mean absolute percentage error of estimate for 3-km and 10-km test times were 2.3% and 3.4%, respectively. The change in running speed of intervals and test runs from T1 to T2 correlated (r=0.75, p<0.001) in both datasets. Thus, the maximal sustainable effort intervals were able to predict 3-km and 10-km running performance and training adaptations with good accuracy, and current results demonstrate the potential usefulness of intervals as part of the monitoring process.

Key words running - endurance training - interval training - perceived effort Publication History

Received: 07 October 2022

Accepted: 01 February 2023

Accepted Manuscript online:
01 February 2023

Article published online:
01 June 2023

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