The technological innovation and tuberculosis elimination: a Technology Foresight study.

Abstract

In the present study, tuberculosis specialists were surveyed to rate the most effective strategies to eliminate TB as a public health problem by 2050. Then were investigated the most promising emerging technologies for the prevention, diagnosis and treatment of tuberculosis (TB) expected to reach the market by 2035. This Technology Foresight study was specifically carried out by means of a web survey closed questionnaire, which was sent to 29,988 TB specialists worldwide. Of these, 2,657 answers were obtained and analysed. Respondents had demonstrated a high level of academic training (PhD), more than 10 years of professional experience, and a great diversity of both areas of knowledge and geographic reach. In the view of experts, the strategies with the greatest potential impact on epidemic TB were a) shorter time between diagnosis and start of treatment of DS and MDR-TB; b) strengthening tuberculosis control actions in the most vulnerable populations; c) shorter and less expensive regimens for drug resistant MDR/XDR-TB. Regarding the strategies with the highest potential for eliminating TB, our data suggests that the biomedical paradigm is the strongest among the specialists. The most promising technologies expected to reach the market by 2035 selected by the specialists were: (1) new drugs of known chemical classes or new chemical classes; (2) new point-of-care diagnostic tests for DS-TB, drug resistant or multidrug resistant (MDR/XDR)-TB and TB Infection (TBI). We contribute by discussing the most promising technologies and strategies for the elimination of TB in light of social determinants of health models and forecasting studies. We conclude by suggesting that the expected emerging technologies ongoing development will not suffice to end TB by 2050.

Competing Interest Statement

The authors have declared no competing interest.

Funding Statement

The research was conducted autonomously, without specific funding. It is the result of research from the PhD Program at the Federal University of Rio de Janeiro Brazil

Author Declarations

I confirm all relevant ethical guidelines have been followed, and any necessary IRB and/or ethics committee approvals have been obtained.

Yes

The details of the IRB/oversight body that provided approval or exemption for the research described are given below:

All participants were duly informed about the research and agreed to participate in the research, being guaranteed the confidentiality of the answers and the non-identification of any participant. This was done by means of a letter via e mail and the act of agreement duly registered.

I confirm that all necessary patient/participant consent has been obtained and the appropriate institutional forms have been archived, and that any patient/participant/sample identifiers included were not known to anyone (e.g., hospital staff, patients or participants themselves) outside the research group so cannot be used to identify individuals.

Yes

I understand that all clinical trials and any other prospective interventional studies must be registered with an ICMJE-approved registry, such as ClinicalTrials.gov. I confirm that any such study reported in the manuscript has been registered and the trial registration ID is provided (note: if posting a prospective study registered retrospectively, please provide a statement in the trial ID field explaining why the study was not registered in advance).

Yes

I have followed all appropriate research reporting guidelines, such as any relevant EQUATOR Network research reporting checklist(s) and other pertinent material, if applicable.

Yes

Data Availability

the survey database was made available in its entirety through the file named Survey_results file extracted directly from the Survey monkey tool. Data will be available upon request.

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