Prediction of a major adverse coronary event in Women through CORSWO

Abstract

BACKGROUND. In women, risk stratification for a major adverse coronary event (MACE) is complex, and moreover women have often been underrepresented in cardiovascular studies. This study aims to establish a COronary Risk Score in WOmen (CORSWO) to predict MACE. METHODS. From a cohort of 25,943 consecutive patients referred for clinical gSPECT-MPI (gated single-photon emission computed tomography myocardial perfusion imaging), 2,226 women (aged 66.7±11.6 years) were included. During the follow-up (mean 4±2.7 years) post gSPECT-MPI, MACE (unstable-angina requiring hospitalization, non-fetal myocardial infarction, coronary revascularization, cardiac death) was assessed. The patients were divided into training (n=1460) and validation (n=766) groups. To obtain the predictor model, LASSO-regression analysis with 10-fold cross-validation was used. RESULTS. In training group, 148 women had MACE (0.026/patient/year). The best model (ROC area:0.8, Brier score:0.0777) to stratify women included: age >69 years (OR:1.6); diabetes mellitus (OR:2); angina-history (OR:1.6); nitrate (OR:1.5); left bundle branch block (OR:1.2); pharmacological test (OR:1.6); ST-segment-depression (≥1mm) (OR:2); stress angina (OR:1.3); myocardial ischemia >5% (OR:2.6); perfusion defect at rest >9% (OR:2.4); perfusion defect at stress >6% (OR:1.7); end-systolic volume index >15 ml (OR:1.6); and left ventricular ejection fraction <50% (OR:1.2). This model was validated (validation group) with a strong prediction (ROC area:0.8, Brier score:0.0747). The CORSWO obtained from these variables allows the stratification of women into five risk levels: very low (score:0,HR:1), low (score:1-2,HR:1.5), moderate (score:3-6,HR:2.7), high (score:7-10,HR:6.9) and very high (score:≥11,HR:21.7). CONCLUSIONS. In a clinical practice setting we can obtain an excellent coronary risk stratification in women, however at the expense of multiple variables.

Competing Interest Statement

The authors have declared no competing interest.

Funding Statement

No funding

Author Declarations

I confirm all relevant ethical guidelines have been followed, and any necessary IRB and/or ethics committee approvals have been obtained.

Yes

The details of the IRB/oversight body that provided approval or exemption for the research described are given below:

Ethics Committee of Vall d'Hebron Hospital (registered as PR(AG)168.2012).

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Yes

I understand that all clinical trials and any other prospective interventional studies must be registered with an ICMJE-approved registry, such as ClinicalTrials.gov. I confirm that any such study reported in the manuscript has been registered and the trial registration ID is provided (note: if posting a prospective study registered retrospectively, please provide a statement in the trial ID field explaining why the study was not registered in advance).

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Yes

Data Availability

All data is available

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