Air pollution, owing to the ever-increasing transport vehicle fleet, and adverse health effects are increasing in provinces of Thailand. The study estimated that the vehicle fleet size of Nakhon Ratchasima (NR) province of Thailand will grow to 2 million vehicles by 2030, which was 1.36 million in 2021. In NR, the PM2.5 and PM10 concentrations already surpassed both WHO and NAAQS guidelines in 2019–2021. Using Pollution Control Department (PCD) approved Tier I and II Methodology of EMEP/EEA, this research estimated that the total tailpipe emission load will be 1039 tons of PM2.5, 16,630 tons of NO₂, 20,623 tons of CO, 195 tons NH₃, and 249 tons of SO₂ in NR during 2030. The emission load will increase to 1752 tons of PM2.5, 21,126 tons of NO2, 25,559 tons of CO, 361 tons of NH3 and 9344 tons of SO₂ during 2030 if upstream emissions are considered. This study has developed five control scenarios in line with the directives of PCD to mitigate the adverse health from vehicle-led air pollution in NR and implementation during 2024–2030.

According to the study, different control scenarios to be implemented during 2024–2030, will be able to keep the fleet size of vehicles in the NR under control. The results show that the control scenarios will keep the annual tailpipe emission of PM2.5 at 604 tons in 2030, a 42 % reduction over the 2030 Business-As-Usual scenario (BAU). The health damage in the range of 6941 to 11,625 disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) under the 2030 BAU scenario in NR due to tailpipe and upstream emissions can be reduced to 4162–7318 DALYs with the implementation of different control scenarios. The control scenarios will also provide significant economic benefits ranging from 4465 to 6718 million THB during 2024–2030 through reduced DALYs and associated costs.