Clinical trial developers can learn insights from successful trials and avoid mistakes from unsuccessful trials from prior cases.

Common characteristics from successful trials could be used to recommend cases that are similar to a new trial design to avoid duplication or to learn good common practice.

Common characteristics from unsuccessful trials could be used to help refinement efforts for a new trial design.

Contrast pattern mining can efficiently identify complex patterns to facilitate investigation of association between multiple aspects of trial characteristics.

Clinical trials are essential to the process of new drug development. As clinical trials involve significant investments of time and money, it is crucial for trial designers to carefully investigate trial settings prior to designing a trial. Utilizing trial documents from ClinicalTrials.gov, we aim to understand the common characteristics of successful and unsuccessful cancer drug trials to provide insights about what to learn and what to avoid. In this research, we first computationally classified cancer drug trials into successful and unsuccessful cases and then utilized natural language processing to extract eligibility criteria information from the trial documents. To provide explainable and potentially modifiable recommendations for new trial design, contrast mining was applied to discover highly contrasted patterns with a significant difference in prevalence between successful (completion with advancement to the next phase) and unsuccessful (suspended, withdrawn, or terminated) groups. Our method identified contrast patterns consisting of combinations of drug categories, eligibility criteria, study organization, and study design for nine major cancers. In addition to a literature review for the qualitative validation of mined contrast patterns, we found that contrast-pattern-based classifiers using the top 200 contrast patterns as feature representations can achieve approximately 80% F1 score for eight out of ten cancer types in our experiments. In summary, aligning with the modernization efforts of ClinicalTrials.gov, our study demonstrates that understanding the contrast characteristics of successful and unsuccessful cancer trials may provide insights into the decision-making process for trial investigators and therefore facilitate improved cancer drug trial design.

Cancer drug trials

Explainable AI

Contrast mining

Study characteristics

© 2023 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Inc.