TropicalMed, Vol. 8, Pages 17: A Dynamic Compartmental Model to Explore the Optimal Strategy of Varicella Vaccination: An Epidemiological Study in Jiangsu Province, China

Figure 1. Illustration of the fitting result of the full model from 2005 to 2018 underestimated parameters. The blue solid line and azure shade represent the model-predicted cases and 95% confidence interval (CI). Red circles denote survey-reported cases. (A) is the fitting result of total infected population, and (BH) is the fitting result of each age group.

Figure 1. Illustration of the fitting result of the full model from 2005 to 2018 underestimated parameters. The blue solid line and azure shade represent the model-predicted cases and 95% confidence interval (CI). Red circles denote survey-reported cases. (A) is the fitting result of total infected population, and (BH) is the fitting result of each age group.

Tropicalmed 08 00017 g001

Figure 2. (A) Estimated basic reproduction number based on the full model. (B) Partial rank correlation coefficients illustrating the sensitivity of basic reproduction number on three types of parameters, named as vaccination coverage rate, vaccination efficacy and effective contact rate, which are shown by blue, green and orange bars, respectively. The red dashed line in (A) denotes the critical threshold. The blue and red lines in (B) represent moderate and strong correlation thresholds of PRCC values, respectively.

Figure 2. (A) Estimated basic reproduction number based on the full model. (B) Partial rank correlation coefficients illustrating the sensitivity of basic reproduction number on three types of parameters, named as vaccination coverage rate, vaccination efficacy and effective contact rate, which are shown by blue, green and orange bars, respectively. The red dashed line in (A) denotes the critical threshold. The blue and red lines in (B) represent moderate and strong correlation thresholds of PRCC values, respectively.

Tropicalmed 08 00017 g002

Figure 3. (A) The surface of R0 = 1 in terms of parameters related to vaccination coverage rate, vaccination efficacy and contact rate. The surface above the plane represents R0 < 1 and otherwise R0 > 1. The contours of R0 versus vaccination coverage rate and vaccination efficacy (B), versus vaccination coverage rate and contact rate (C), versus the contact rate and vaccination efficacy (D).

Figure 3. (A) The surface of R0 = 1 in terms of parameters related to vaccination coverage rate, vaccination efficacy and contact rate. The surface above the plane represents R0 < 1 and otherwise R0 > 1. The contours of R0 versus vaccination coverage rate and vaccination efficacy (B), versus vaccination coverage rate and contact rate (C), versus the contact rate and vaccination efficacy (D).

Tropicalmed 08 00017 g003

Figure 4. The impact of increasing second dose vaccination coverage rate staring in 2018 on the varicella transmission with (A) unchanged contact rate and (B) reduced contact rate (80% baseline). η2 represents all parameters related to second dose vaccination. β represents all parameters of contact rate.

Figure 4. The impact of increasing second dose vaccination coverage rate staring in 2018 on the varicella transmission with (A) unchanged contact rate and (B) reduced contact rate (80% baseline). η2 represents all parameters related to second dose vaccination. β represents all parameters of contact rate.

Tropicalmed 08 00017 g004

Table 1. Vaccination outcomes in each age group.

Table 1. Vaccination outcomes in each age group.

Age GroupV0f(k,t)V0s(k,t)V1f(k,t)V1s(k,t)0–1 yearη1(1)(1−ε1)S0(1,t)η1(1)ε1S0(1,t)NANA1–3 yearsη1(2)(1−ε1)S0(2,t)η1(2)ε1S0(2,t)η2(2)(1−ε2)S1(2,t)η2(2)ε2S1(2,t)3–5 yearsη1(3)(1−ε1)S0(3,t)η1(3)ε1S0(3,t)η2(3)(1−ε2)S1(3,t)η2(3)ε2S1(3,t)5–10 yearsη1(4)(1−ε1)S0(4,t)η1(4)ε1S0(4,t)η2(4)(1−ε2)S1(4,t)η2(4)ε2S1(4,t)

留言 (0)

沒有登入
gif