Overview of intra-regional food trade

Intra-regional food trade represents only a small fraction of total food imported by PICTs: rising from 0.3% in 1995 to 3.2% in 2018 (Fig. 1). In 2018, 58,712 t of food was traded intra-regionally. This was a substantial increase from the 2724 t traded intra-regionally in 1995, with the major increase occurring between 2000 (7819 t traded) and 2001 (12,325 t traded) (Fig. 2). Food trade between PICTs and non-PICTs has been dominated by Australia and New Zealand. The bulk of exports from the region are comprised of sugar and palm oil.

Fig. 1

Intra-regional food trade compared to extra-regional trade (excluding alcoholic beverages, tuna, and water), 1995–2018

Fig. 2

Intra-regional food trade in the Pacific Region, 1995–2018. Bars show cumulative total trade across different PICT combinations. Lines indicate per capita trade flows with PNG (solid) and without (dashed)

Fiji has consistently been the main source of intra-regional imports to PICTs, with the volume rising from 2693 t (99% of total) in 1995 to 49,900 t (85%) in 2018 (Fig. 2). Countries importing the most food from Fiji, on a per capita basis, include Cook Islands, Kiribati, Nauru, Samoa, Tonga, Tuvalu and Wallis and Futuna Islands. Exports from Papua New Guinea to other PICTs have increased from a negligible amount to nearly 10% of intra-regional food trade.

Papua New Guinea has the largest population in the region, and was the single largest destination for intra-regionally traded food from 2012 to 2014 (18–24% of trade). However, Papua New Guinea represents by far the lowest per capita consumption of intra-regionally traded foods, even during this period. In 2018, total per capita consumption of intra-regionally traded foods was 14 g/capita/ day, but excluding Papua New Guinea this rises to 45 g/capita/day (Fig. 2).

Types of food traded intra-regionally

The major food group traded intra-regionally in the Pacific is cereals, grains and flours, which represented 51% of total intra-regional food trade in 2018 (Fig. 3), 98% of which is exported from Fiji to smaller Pacific island countries. The major cereal traded in 2018 was wheat flour, at 84% of cereal, grains and flour trade and 45% of total intra-regional food trade. Rice comprised only 1% of cereal, grains and flours traded and 0.6% of total intra-regional food trade (nearly all rice is directly imported from outside the region). Cereal grains and rice are all imported from outside the region, except for limited rice production in Fiji, and are either re-traded or milled and exported as flour and milled rice.

Fig. 3

Intra-regional trade by food groups including A tonnes imported to PICTs from other PICTs and B percentage of all imports that are imported from PICTs

Trade in processed and prepared foods, including processed meat, vegetable and ‘miscellaneous’ preparations, comprised 19% of intra-regional food trade in 2018. The next highest trade food groups were sweetened or flavoured beverages (8%), processed fish (5%) and sugar and confectionary (3%). Trade in root crops is negligible, totalling 78 t in 2018.

Intra-regional trade represents a small, but increasing proportion of total imports (Fig. 3). The most notable increases have been in intra-regional imports of ‘cereals, grains and flours’, which also rose as a proportion of total imports (from negligible in 1999 to over 4% in 2013 before declining to 2–3%). The large spike in prepared and processed foods as a proportion of total imports between 2001 and 2007 reflects the sustained increase in sugar export from Fiji to other PICTs that occurred in 2001.

Intra-regional trade in staple foods

Intra-regional trade of the major ‘non-traditional’ staple foods (namely rice and wheat flour) represented 3% of total trade in these foods during the period 2014–2018 (Table 1). Fifty-one percent and 26% of total trade in staple foods went to Papua New Guinea and Fiji respectively during this period. Almost all of this was imported from countries outside of the Pacific region. During this period, 2062 t of staple foods were imported into Fiji from Papua New Guinea between 2014 and 2018 (the only intra-regional export from Papua New Guinea), representing only 0.2% of staple food imports into Fiji.

Table 1 Intra-regional imports as a percentage of total imports (by weight; 2014–2018 avg)

The significance of intra-regional trade in rice and wheat varied widely across countries during the period 2014–2018. For Nauru, Tokelau, Tonga, Tuvalu and Wallis and Futuna Islands, intra-regional trade comprised more than 80% of total non-traditional staple food imports (Table 1). In contrast, intra-regional trade contributed less than 1% of imported non-traditional staple foods for the Federated States of Micronesia, Fiji, New Caledonia, Papua New Guinea and Solomon Islands.

Fiji acts as a hub for intra-regional trade in staple foods, with 98% of intra-regional trade in non-traditional staple foods coming from Fiji (Fig. 4). Fiji was the source of all intra-regional non-traditional staple food imports into Cook Islands, Federated State of Micronesia, French Polynesia, Kiribati, Marshall Islands, Nauru, New Caledonia, Niue, Papua New Guinea, Samoa, Solomon Islands, Tonga, Tuvalu, Vanuatu and Wallis and Futuna Islands. For Nauru, Samoa, Tonga, Tuvalu and Wallis and Futuna Islands, over 60% of total non-traditional staple food imports came from Fiji. An average of 895,143 t of staples entered the region per year between 2014 and 2018, 237,243 t of which was imported by Fiji; 177 g/capita/day was imported directly from outside the region to other PICTs. Of Fiji’s imports roughly 11% was reexported, or processed and exported, to other PICTs.

Fig. 4

Average annual grams per capita per day of staples (HS10, HS11) moving between PICTs and imports from outside the region for 1995–1999 and 2014–2018. Line width reflects grams per capita per day for the importing country (see scale bar). Per capita imports entering the region to countries other than Fiji are aggregated because there is negligible re-trade from PICTs other than Fiji

Intra-regional trade of healthy foods

Intra-regional trade of healthy foods, including fruit, vegetables, pulses, nuts and seeds, and root crops, is limited, both in terms of tonnage and relative to imports from outside the region (Fig. 5). The peak volume of intra-regional trade in healthy foods was 656 t in 2011.In 2018, healthy foods represented 0.3% of intra-regional trade, and 0.18% of total healthy food imports. The main extra-regional source country for healthy foods is New Zealand which exports a meaningful quantity of vegetables to the region.

Fig. 5

Total intra-regional trade in healthy food, subdivided across four healthy food groups

Fiji was the source of 63% of healthy foods traded intra-regionally in 2018, a lower percentage than its contribution to total intra-regional food trade (85%) in the same year. The larger trade flows of staple root crops in 2011 and 2012 are cassava (HS071490 Manioc, arrowroot, sago pith etc.) from Solomon Islands to Kiribati. All intra-regional trade flows of staple root crops (2350 t) through the period are exported from high islands, and 75% of this volume is imported by atoll nations. The vast majority of healthy food imports come from outside the region. Only around 0.2% of healthy food imports were from PICTs in 2018. Fiji imports 139 g/capita/day from outside the region, mostly comprising potatoes from New Zealand. The rest of the region, excluding Fiji, directly imports only 11 g/capita/day from outside the region. Small quantities are exported from Fiji to other PICTs, predominantly atoll nations.

Intra-regional trade of unhealthy foods

Intra-regional trade in unhealthy foods – namely sugars, fatty meats, ready-to-eat snacks and meals, sweet snacks and energy dense beverages – peaked between 2002 and 2009, at an average of nearly 16,000 t traded per year (Fig. 6). Between 2014 and 2018 the yearly average was less than 10,000 t. Intra-regional trade in sweet snacks increased from 30 t in 1995 to over 2000 t in 2011 and has remained fairly steady since. Intra-regional trade in sweetened beverages increased from 17 t in 1995 to nearly 4000 t in 2002, and then remained between 4000 and 6000 t through to 2018. The overall decline is mainly due to a decline in sugar trade, which fell from an average of over 10,000 t per year to less than 1000 t per year over the same period. In particular, Fiji as the main intra-regional exporter of sugar to PICTs, ended its preferential export price on sugar (which was two to three times higher than the world market price) in December 2007 due to the European Union reform on its Common Agricultural Policy [40]. As a result, the local sugar industry in Fiji started to face stiff competition from more efficient sugar exporters worldwide from 2008 onwards.

Fig. 6

Total intra-regional trade in unhealthy food, subdivided across five food groups. Lines (z axis) shows 3 year moving average of intra-regional trade in unhealthy food as a percentage of total unhealthy food imports, with the remainder coming from outside the region

Overall, intra-regional trade comprised 4% of total unhealthy food trade, and for eight of the 17 countries that imported unhealthy food from within the region (the only country in our study that only had extra-regional sources of unhealthy food imports was Palau), intraregional trade comprised 1% or less of total unhealthy food imports (Fig. 5). However, for Tokelau, intra-regional trade was the source of 98% of unhealthy food imports. For Nauru, Tuvalu, Vanuatu and Wallis and Futuna, intra-regional trade comprised over 20% of total unhealthy food imports.

In the late 1990s, Fiji was a hub for intra-regional trade in unhealthy foods, although the volume was minimal (Fig. 7). Between 2014 and 2018 the majority of intra-regional trade in unhealthy foods came from Fiji, but with more diversity in source than observed for staple foods. Only for Federated States of Micronesia, Marshall Islands, Niue, Samoa, Tonga, Tuvalu and Vanuatu was Fiji the source of 100% of intra-regional imports. Other source countries included Papua New Guinea, Samoa, New Caledonia, Solomon Islands, Vanuatu, French Polynesia and Marshall Islands. On a grams per capita basis Fiji is a major reexport and export hub for unhealthy food in the region.

Fig. 7

Average annual grams per capita per day of unhealthy food moving between PICTs and imports from outside the region for 1995–1999 and 2014–2018. Line width reflects grams per capita per day for the importing country (see scale bar). Per capita imports entering the region to countries other than Fiji are aggregated because there is negligible re-trade from PICTs other than Fiji

Intra-regional trade and trade agreements

The PICTA was signed (2001) and implemented (2007) during the period under analysis. Intra-regional imports grew substantially during this period, as described above. Here, we explore whether there was any corresponding shift in the proportion of imports sourced intra-regionally compared to extra-regionally. PICTs have adopted PICTA at different times, and to differing degrees [41]. To control for ambiguity we include the following PICTs in the PICTA only analysis as they were unambiguously early adopters to PICTA; Cook Islands, Fiji, Niue, Samoa, Solomon Islands, Tuvalu and Vanuatu. Extra-regional imports to all PICTs and to PICTA early adopters have increased considerably and consistently since the mid 1990s (Fig. 8). Trade of regionally produced commodities (Supplementary Table 1) between all PICTs has been highly variable, with temporal spikes attributed to large intra-regional shipments of copra. Trade of regionally produced commodities between early PICTA adopters has been negligible through the time period. In particular, there is no aggregate evidence of an effect of PICTA on the quantity of food trade.

Fig. 8

Temporal trend in quantity of food traded including net imports from outside the region to all PICTs (solid blue line) from outside the region to PICTs that were early adopters of PICTA (dashed blue line), all intra-regional imports (solid green line) and intra-regional imports for early adopters of PICTA (dashed green line)

When controlling for the difference in quantity of different commodities there is no significant change in quantity being imported from outside the region for either all PICTs or early PICTA adopters (Fig. 9A). If PICTA had a meaningful effect on imports from outside the region we would have expected to observe some difference between the two trends. Similarly, there is no discernible difference in the quantity of Pacific produce traded between all PICTs and between early PICTA adopters (Fig. 9B). There is some increase for both trends in the early 2000s, but the increase is ephemeral and not unambiguously attributable to PICTA.

Fig. 9

A Mean food imports from outside the region to all PICTs and to PICTs that were early adopters of PICTA. Only commodities produced outside the region were included; B Mean intra-regional trade between all PICTs and between PICTs that were early adopters of PICTA. Only commodities that were produced within the region were included. For both graphs, each HS6 commodity type was given equal weighting to avoid bulk commodities dominating trends (see methods for calculation). Error bars show 95% confidence interval around the average trade quantity. See Supplementary Table 1 for inclusion and exclusions