Trend analysis and prediction of injury death in Xi’an city, China, 2005-2020

Injury death profile

Table 1 presents an overview of injury death in Xi’an. During the 16 years, a total of 562,219 deaths were recorded in Xi’an. Injury-related deaths account for approximately 5.79% of all deaths due to all causes. The injury mortality of permanent residents in Xi’an city ranges from 15.56/100000 (2020) to 47.78/100000 (2011). The average injury mortality was 35.71/100000. Males tended to have higher injury mortality than females each year. (P < 0.05). Compared with nationwide, the injury mortality rates in Xi’an were significantly lower in 2005, 2015, 2019 and higher in 2010 (Fig. 1a-c Comparison of injury mortality between Xi’an and China).

Table 1 Injury death profile of permanent residents in Xi’an, 2005-2020 (N, 1/100000)Fig. 1figure 1

Comparison of injury mortality between in Xi’an and China

Analysis of life lost by injury

AYLL, PYLLR, and rank of life lost by injury from 2005 to 2020 were presented in Fig. 2a-c (Analysis of life lost caused by injury in Xi’an). The graph shows that there has been a decrease in AYLL and PYLLR caused by injury in Xi’an city. And the rank of life lost by injury has been in the top 2 for 16 years.

Fig. 2figure 2

Analysis of life lost caused by injury in Xi’an

Injury deaths by age group

During the 16 years, the injury mortality ranges from 158.67/100000 (10-year-old group) to 8249.32/100000(85-year-old group). As shown in Additional Table 1, in the age trend, the overall injury mortality decreased first and then increased from 15-year-old.

Major injury deaths

Broad categories of external causes of death can be defined based on the nature of the causes of injuries, and include motor vehicle traffic accidents, motor vehicles outside of transportation accidents, accidental poisoning, unintentional falls, fires, accidents caused by natural environmental factors, drowning, accidents of mechanic asphyxia, batter to death, caused by the mechanical cutting and piercing tools of accident, electric shock, accidents and other harmful effects, suicide and homicide 14 categories. From 2005 to 2020, the top five causes of injury death among the permanent population in Xi’an were motor vehicle traffic accidents, transport accidents other than motor vehicles, unintentional falls, suicide, and accidental poisoning. The mean mortality rates were 140.04/100000 (24.41%), 116.67/100000 (20.34%), 95.86/100000 (16.54%), 58.67/100000 (10.23%) and 46.63/100000 (8.13%), respectively. The top five causes of injury death of different genders were similar to that of the general population (Additional Table 2).

Ranks in different age groups

The main causes of injury death were also different among different ages (Additional Table 3). In the 0-year-old group, accidental mechanical asphyxia was the leading cause of injury fatality. Motor vehicle traffic accidents are the leading cause of injury mortality among persons aged 5 to 84, and they rank among the top three causes of injury death for people of all ages. Unintentional falls are the leading cause of death among people aged 85 and up, and the elderly are particularly vulnerable to them. Additional Fig. 1 provides the age distribution for the top five causes of injury mortality.

Seasonal distribution of mortality of various injury types in Xi’an city

As can be seen from Fig. 3 (Seasonal distribution of injury mortality in Xi’an), there was no significant difference between seasons in the overall injury. In terms of injury types, 43.87% of drowning accidents, 39.68% of accidents were caused by natural environment factors and 50.16% of electric shock accidents occurred in summer, accounting for a large proportion. The main injury types in winter were accidental poisoning (37.85%) and fire (39.22%).

Fig. 3figure 3

Seasonal distribution of injury mortality in Xi’an

Location of injury deaths in Xi’an city

The study listed the locations of death events in all study samples and the corresponding constituent ratios, including hospital, emergency clinic, home or on the way to hospital, overseas and others, family inpatient ward and not quite clear. The ranking is based on respective fatality rates for each type of injury, as shown in Additionl Figs. 2 and 3. The majority of deaths occurred at home or on the way to hospital, accounting for 56.04% of the total. 21.15% of deaths occurred in hospitals, followed by Emergency clinics, overseas, others, and family inpatient wards.

Occupational distribution of injury-related deaths in Xi’an city

The distribution of injury-related deaths was further analyzed according to occupation (Additional Figs. 4 and 5). Occupational classifications include technicist, office clerk, infants, preschool children or students, out of work, peasant, worker, and unknown or other workers. In the overall injury, the proportion of death caused by injury was the highest among peasants (62.28%), followed by the unemployed, workers, students, and office clerks, and the proportion of death caused by injury was the least among technicians.

Trends in injury mortality for the top five causes of injury, 2005-2020

Figure 4 (Trends in mortality rates by injury types in Xi’an) shows the 16-year trend of death rates for each injury type. Joinpoint Regression Program (V.4.7.0.0, National Cancer Institute, 2019) was used to analyze the time series trend of the overall injury from 2005 to 2020 and the injury mortality of the top five injury causes (Table 2, Additional Tables 4, 5, 6, 7, 8 and 9). The result reflects a decreasing trend over 16 years (Overall, 2009-2017: APC = -5.0,2017-2020: APC = -22.3)

Fig. 4figure 4

Trends in mortality rates by injury types in Xi’an

Table 2 Time series trends in overall injury mortality in Xi’anPrediction of injury mortality in Xi’an City, 2021-2030

The GM (1,1) model was established based on the injury death data from 2005 to 2020 to predict the injury death rate from 2021 to 2030. After model construction, a posterior error ratio C value is obtained, which is the residual variance/data variance. It is used to measure the fitting accuracy of the model, and the smaller the C value is, the better, generally less than 0.65. For mortality prediction, after calculation and selection, we found the best model of disease to predict its future mortality. It can be considered that the model fits well, the model error is relatively small, and the prediction result is relatively accurate. The overall injury death rate, motor vehicle traffic accident death rate, transportation accident death rate other than motor vehicle, suicide death rate, and accidental poisoning death rate were all qualified. In the model of unintentional falls mortality, whether total, male or female, the posterior error ratio C value was greater than 0.65 (0.7846, 0.6614, 0.9083), and grade accuracy was all unqualified. Therefore, data from 2005 to 2009 was removed, and the unintentional falls mortality rate was modeled and predicted again with the data from 2010 to 2020. The accuracy of the obtained model was qualified. The injury mortality is projected to continue decreasing in the future (Table 3, Additional Tables 10, 11, 12, 13 and 14).

Table 3 Overall injury mortality prediction in Xi’an

留言 (0)

沒有登入
gif