Stochastic modelling of African swine fever in wild boar and domestic pigs: Epidemic forecasting and comparison of disease management strategies

ElsevierVolume 40, September 2022, 100622EpidemicsHighlights•

We developed a stochastic model for ASF transmission among wild boar and domestic pigs.

Study was performed in the context of the first modelling challenge in animal health.

Study mimicked real-time epidemic analysis.

Timescale considerations are important when evaluating interventions.

Abstract

African swine fever (ASF), caused by the African swine fever virus (ASFV), is highly virulent in domestic pigs and wild boar (Sus scrofa), causing up to 100% mortality. The recent epidemic of ASF in Europe has had a serious economic impact and poses a threat to global food security. Unfortunately, there is no effective treatment or vaccine against ASFV, limiting the available disease management strategies. Mathematical models allow us to further our understanding of infectious disease dynamics and evaluate the efficacy of disease management strategies. The ASF Challenge, organised by the French National Research Institute for Agriculture, Food, and the Environment, aimed to expand the development of ASF transmission models to inform policy makers in a timely manner. Here, we present the model and associated projections produced by our team during the challenge. We developed a stochastic model combining transmission between wild boar and domestic pigs, which was calibrated to synthetic data corresponding to different phases describing the epidemic progression. The model was then used to produce forward projections describing the likely temporal evolution of the epidemic under various disease management scenarios. Despite the interventions implemented, long-term projections forecasted persistence of ASFV in wild boar, and hence repeated outbreaks in domestic pigs. A key finding was that it is important to consider the timescale over which different measures are evaluated: interventions that have only limited effectiveness in the short term may yield substantial long-term benefits. Our model has several limitations, partly because it was developed in real-time. Nonetheless, it can inform understanding of the likely development of ASF epidemics and the efficacy of disease management strategies, should the virus continue its spread in Europe.

Keywords

Mathematical modelling

African swine fever virus

Wildlife-livestock interface

Spatial model

Real-time analysis

© 2022 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V.

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