Validating the GCP data hypothesis using internet search data

Elsevier

Available online 6 August 2022

EXPLOREAbstract

The Global Consciousness Project (GCP) operates under the hypothesis that events that elicit widespread emotion or draw the simultaneous attention of a large number of people could affect the output of hardware-generated random numbers. The hypothesis thus suggests that the mind, in some sense, can interact with matter at a distance, a controversial suggestion because such a mechanism could challenge some current understandings. Testing the validity of the hypothesis thus carries substantial merit as negative results would reinforce already established scientific perceptions, whereas positive results would point in the direction of a needed update. In this paper, it is hypothesized that events inflicting a strong emotional response should also trigger the need for information. As such, global internet search trends should correlate with the GCP data, allowing for the hypothesis to be objectively tested. In practice, Google Trends search data is used to construct several search indexes that are correlated with GCP data aggregates using time series statistics. It is found that the GCP data significantly correlates with the indexes and can be used to improve the statistical model's in-sample fit. Furthermore, it is found that out-of-sample forecasts can be made more accurate if the GCP data is used. The results thus point toward the validity of the GCP data hypothesis and that the data produced by the GCP can be put to practical use by, for example, forecasters.

Section snippetsBrief introduction

The Global Consciousness Project (GCP) is an international and multidisciplinary collaboration project that generates and collects random number data continuously from a network of physical random number generators (RNGs) at several different locations around the world.1 The random numbers are generated using quantum tunneling techniques, and the hypothesis underlying the GCP is that events that elicit widespread emotion or draw the

A discussion on consciousness

Consciousness is one of humanity's greatest mysteries as no one knows what it is, what it does, or even how it emerged. The prevailing working hypothesis, in most sciences, is that consciousness is an epiphenomenon of the brain and a result of physical arrangements and information processing patterns (see, e.g.,12. This viewpoint rests on the existence of neural correlates (see, e.g.,6,19and17, among others), but how the brain alone can produce subjective experiences (such as the feeling

Global internet search trends and global attention

Searches made on the internet can be said to derive from the human need for information. Internet searches also require the searcher be attentive to the topic searched for, and the number of searches made relates to how engaging the topic searched for is. Thus, a rise in the number of searches made globally on specific topics should relate to how engaging the topic is perceived to be and thus to global attention. This is approximately what is claimed to affect the random numbers produced by the

The GCP data

The GCP generates and collects random numbers continuously from a network of physical RNGs. The physical random numbers are generated using quantum tunneling techniques and are hypothesized to be affected by events that elicit widespread emotion or draw the simultaneous attention of a large number of people.9 If so, the GCP data should covary with internet searches and with the

Empirical results

This section investigates the hypothesis underlying the GCP data empirically. To this end, let SIi,t denote the search word index i at time t where i = , and let GCPj be the monthly average GCP data aggregate studied with j  = .

As discussed in the previous sections, if the GCP data reacts to engaging events of perceived global importance, the daily aggregates should react. This should also be picked up by the monthly GCP data aggregates because

Concluding remarks

This study has examined whether global internet searches made using the search engine Google covary with an aggregate constructed out of the data produced by the GCP. The results suggests that they do, which partially confirms the GCP findings. Additionally, because the analysis makes use of historical search data on the most popular searches globally, the possibility that the correlations found are due to a psi-mediated experimenter effect seems unlikely. Instead, the results point toward the

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