Available online 19 April 2022, 101348

Diabetic patients had more adverse levels of most MRFs throughout follow-up.

The natural history of multiple MRFs before diabetes diagnosis was elaborated.

Abrupt increases in multiple MRFs were observed 3 years before diabetes diagnosis.

We identified 3 years before diabetes as the ‘critical period’ for diagnosis.

: China has the largest number of adults with diabetes. Although multiple metabolic risk factors (MRFs) are implicated in the development of diabetes, it remains unclear how they progress during the development of diabetes among Chinese. We examined trajectories of multiple MRFs among Chinese and identified the critical period when drastic changes occurred during the development of diabetes.

: This prospective cohort study included participants since 2006-2007 in the Kailuan study. People attended biennial examinations until 2017 with additions of new participants at each examination cycle. The time when a participant first completed the examination was served as the baseline. A total of 122,659 participants without prevalent diabetes at baseline and with complete follow-up data were included. MRFs were collected via biennial physical examinations and laboratory measures. Incident diabetes cases were identified via biennial fasting glucose tests and self-reported physician-diagnosis.

: During up to 12 years of follow-up, 14,922 incident diabetes cases were identified. Compared with participants who did not develop diabetes, those who developed diabetes had more adverse levels of most MRFs at baseline and during follow-up. Abrupt increases in multiple MRFs (including fasting glucose, surrogate insulin resistance indicators, lipids, systolic blood pressure, pulse pressure, heart rate, alanine aminotransferase, and C-reactive protein) were observed 3 years before the diagnosis of diabetes.

: We identified 3 years before diabetes diagnosis as a critical period when multiple MRFs experienced drastic changes. This would have implications for early monitoring and timely prevention for individuals who experience sudden adverse progression of multiple MRFs.

Chinese

Cohort study

Diabetes

Metabolic risk factor

Trajectory

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