Dynamic Simulation and Conflict Identification Analysis of Production‐Living‐Ecological Space in Wuhan, Central China

Under the current rapid urbanization and industrialization in China, competition for production, living, and ecological spaces is becoming fierce. Improving production-living-ecological spaces (PLESs) has become one of the core issues of China’s land space development strategy. In this study, the multiple linear logistic regression (MLLR)-multicriteria evaluation (MCE)-cellular automata (CA)-Markov hybrid model was used to predict the land-use pattern for 2030, and the spatial conflict model was established based on landscape indices to measure the evolution characteristics of spatial conflicts. The results showed that from 2005 to 2030, the production-ecological space (PES) will be the main front runner status in Wuhan, followed by the ecological-production space (EPS). In 2005-2015, living-production space (LPS) and PES occupied large amounts of EPS and ecological space (ES), especially in the main urban areas and near rivers, and the spatial transformation was the most significant. By 2030, there will be less transformation of each space type, but the conversion amount of LPS will still be relatively large. With the passage of time, the living-production space (LPS) shows an increasing trend, the EPS shows a slightly decreasing trend, and the ES shows a fluctuation characteristic. During 2005-2030, the conflict level will gradually change from serious out of control to controllable, and the hot spot of PLES will show a scattering distribution. The cold spot area will be mainly distributed in the southern part of Wuhan, which will be expanded greatly by 2030. Our research indicates that analyzing the reasonable utilization of PLES is of great value by identifying spatial conflicts, and differentiated sustainable development strategies should be formulated according to the spatial and temporal patterns of PLES in the future, which can help in scientific judgments on the spatial matching of land use and provide early warnings of spatial conflicts.

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