Abdominal‐Volume Index Trajectories and Risk of Diabetes Mellitus: Results from the China Health and Nutrition Survey

Aims/Introduction

Abdominal obesity is a risk factor for developing diabetes mellitus (DM), but trajectories of abdominal obesity over time and incident DM have not been considered. We derived trajectories of abdominal volume index (AVI) over 16 years of follow up, and examined the associations between AVI trajectories and risk of DM.

Materials and Methods

Data were used from the China Health and Nutrition Survey (CHNS) and 5,267 participants were enrolled to fit the trajectory of AVI by using latent class growth models. Multivariate logistic regression models explored the relationship between different AVI trajectories and risk of DM. In addition, we examined the slope of the AVI trajectories in relation to age in order to identify appropriate life course intervention opportunities for the prevention of DM.

Results

Three trajectories were derived reflecting graded categories in the speed and slope of increase in AVI over time: slow, intermediate and fast increase group, respectively. After multivariate adjustment, the odds ratios for DM among those in the intermediate and fast increase groups were 1.81 (95% confidence interval (CI): 1.37-2.38, P<0.001) and 2.80 (95% CI:1.85-4.24, P<0.001) respectively, relative to the slow increase group. The distribution of AVI slope in the slow increase group exhibited an inverted "U" shape while the fast increase group presented a "U" shape.

Conclusions

AVI trajectory is associated with an increased risk of DM. These results provide new insights on the relation between abdominal adiposity and DM, which in turn can help improve clinical and public health intervention for DM prevention.

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