Addressing Gender Disparities in Lung Cancer Screening Eligibility: USPSTF versus PLCOm2012 Criteria

Background

Lung cancer is the leading cause of cancer death in women in the United States. Prospective randomized lung screening trials suggest a greater lung cancer mortality benefit from screening women compared to men.

Research Question

Do the United States Preventative Services Task Force (USPSTF) lung screening guidelines that are based solely on age and smoking history contribute to gender disparities in eligibility, and if so, does the use of the PLCOm2012 risk prediction model that is based on 11 predictors of lung cancer reduce gender disparities?

Study Design and Methods

This retrospective analysis of 883 lung cancer cases in the Chicago Race Eligibility for Screening Cohort (CREST) determined the sensitivity of USPSTF versus PLCOm2012 eligibility criteria, stratified by gender. For comparisons to the USPSTF 2013and the recently published USPSTF 2021(released March 9th, 2021) eligibility criteria, the PLCOm2012 model was used with risk thresholds of ≥1.7%/6y and >1.0%/6y, respectively.

Results

The sensitivities for screening by the USPSTF 2013were 46.7% for women and 64.6% for men (p=0.003) and by the USPSTF 2021were 56.8% and 71.8%, respectively (p=0.02). In contrast, the PLCOm2012 ≥1.7%/6y sensitivities were 64.6% and 70.4%, respectively, and the PLCOm2012 ≥1.0%/6y sensitivities were 77.4% and 82.4%, respectively. The PLCOm2012 differences in sensitivity using ≥1.7%/6y and ≥1.0%/6y thresholds between women and men were nonsignificant (both p=0.07). Compared to men, women were more likely to be ineligible by the USPSTF 2021criteria because their smoking exposures were <20 pack-years (22.8% vs 14.8%, ORWomen vs Men 1.70, 95% CI 1.19-2.44; p=0.002) and 27% of these ineligible women were eligible by the PLCOm2012 >1.0%/6y criteria.

Interpretation

Although the USPSTF 2021eligibility criteria are more sensitive than the USPSTF 2013guidelines, there remains gender disparities in eligibility. Adding the PLCOm2012 risk prediction model to the USPSTF guidelines would improve sensitivity and attenuate gender disparities.

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